Z-FIRE

Z-FIRE is ZestyAI's property-level wildfire risk model for property and casualty insurers. ZestyAI says traditional models and Fire Hazard Severity Zone maps tend to lack the granularity needed to assess wildfire risk accurately, and that broad-scale models smooth over local differences in the conditions that drive loss, which adds uncertainty to how exposure is differentiated and priced.

The model uses gradient boosted machines trained on more than 1,500 wildfire events over 20+ years. Its inputs are aerial imagery of rooftops, vegetation and property condition, terrain and fuel load, climatology, fire-suppression capacity, historical fire patterns and structural characteristics, and it draws on structure-ignition research from the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS). ZestyAI press releases also describe it as integrating satellite and aerial imagery, without naming a satellite source.

• Two scores: a Neighborhood Score (Level 1) for the likelihood of falling inside a future fire perimeter, and a Property Score (Level 2) for the likelihood that the structure ignites.
• Explainable: each score comes with its top risk drivers, mitigation simulation and a controlled appeals override, and scores align with average annual loss (AAL).
• Coverage and approvals: scores for 100% of U.S. properties; approved for rating and underwriting in 13 western states, with compliance to actuarial standards ASOP 12, 23, 25 and 38.
• Delivery: the Z-VIEW web application, batch processing and an API. Concentration Risk, built on Z-FIRE, clusters wildfire exposure into cells of about 5 sq km for portfolio and reinsurance decisions.

ZestyAI says Z-FIRE outperforms traditional regional models by 44X in predicting property-level wildfire risk, and that the carriers using it insure 40% of the California homeowners market. It reports that Z-FIRE rated 94% of the Palisades Fire area and 87% of the Eaton Fire area as high or very high risk. Named users include Berkshire Hathaway Homestate Companies, California Casualty, Amica, Kin, Heritage, The Cincinnati Insurance Companies, the California FAIR Plan, DUAL North America and MAP Underwriting at Lloyd's; ZestyAI has also announced CSAA Insurance Group, NEXT Insurance, Jencap and Risk Theory.