LiveCyc

LiveCyc is Reask's probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasting system for early warning and event response. Agency forecasts warn at the scale of a county; LiveCyc translates them into the wind expected at individual sites. It runs downstream of any official track and intensity forecast, such as the US National Hurricane Center's, and generates 1,000 physically consistent storm scenarios with machine-learning (quantile regression forest) models trained on high-resolution WRF simulations and the IBTrACS historical record. For each scenario it models peak 3-second gusts at 1 km resolution, corrected for topography and surface roughness with terrain grids that Reask builds from SRTM space-borne radar elevation data and land-cover products, and from the 1,000 runs it derives the probability of exceeding given wind speeds in every 1 km cell.

Wind gust probabilities are provided up to 72 hours before landfall and updated on a six-hour cycle, up to four times daily; Reask also describes rainfall forecasts. A peer-reviewed back-test of 16 US hurricane landfalls (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2026) found 87% of 1,840 surface observations inside the modelled 90% interval two days before landfall. Data are delivered through a REST API (GeoTIFF or GeoJSON footprints), FTP and distributors such as EigenRisk and Geosite.

Users include the US managing general agent Vave, which used Reask's forecasts to estimate loss ranges 48 hours before Hurricane Helene's landfall, the reinsurance broker Juniper Re, and Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, which publishes LiveCyc probabilities as the fair-value reference for its live hurricane contracts.