Clima-Metrics

Clima-Metrics is AlphaGeo's forecast of how climate hazards reduce economic output across sectors and geographies. AlphaGeo built it because most climate macro models stay too high level: they hide local variation, flatten sector differences and miss how multiple hazards interact.

The model translates physical hazard intensity into GDP loss at the subnational GID-1 level (provinces, states or equivalent), with GRP-weighted country aggregates. Hazard-specific damage functions for heat, flash flood, riverine flood, coastal flood, wind and drought are applied to three economic sectors (agriculture, manufacturing and services), weighted by each region's gross regional product, and combined into a multi-hazard composite. The dashboard shows projections under the SSP3-7.0 scenario for four periods: Current (2020-2025), Early Century (2030-2035), Mid Century (2045-2050) and End Century (2095-2100), covering 67 countries and over 1,400 subnational regions.

Every output comes in two forms. Unadapted loss assumes no resilience infrastructure; adapted loss applies hazard-specific resilience scores from AlphaGeo's Global Adaptation Layer, which is built from global satellite, terrain and geospatial datasets. The difference, the resilience (adaptation) dividend, is the GDP currently saved by existing adaptation, and countries are also ranked by adaptation gap.

Outputs include GDP loss percentages per hazard and combined, sectoral breakdowns, national aggregates and a global snapshot of the highest-risk countries and regions. The public dashboard shows national data; province-level analysis needs full access, and the Climate GDP Impact datasets are licensed through AlphaGeo's Global Data Marketplace. Stated uses are macro-level sector and geographic analysis, asset allocation, and climate finance allocation and adaptation prioritisation.